ACT Math · Probability and counting

A game costs 5 to play. A player wins 20 with probability 0.15, and otherwise wins nothing. What is the expected net gain or loss per game?

A game costs $5 to play. A player wins $20 with probability 0.15, and otherwise wins nothing. What is the expected net gain or loss per game?

Answer and explanation

Answer: C: −$2.00

Expected winnings are the prize times its probability: 0.15×20=30.15 \times 20 = 3, so a player expects to win $3.00 per game. Subtract the $5 cost to play: 3−5=−23 - 5 = -2, an expected net loss of $2.00 per game, choice C. Choice D, $3.00, is the expected winnings before paying to play. Choice A, −$1.25, comes from a subtraction slip, and choice B, $1.25, also flips the sign into a gain. Because the expected value is negative, a player loses about $2.00 per game on average over many games.

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