AP US Government study guide · Chapter 39
Why presidential and congressional elections produce different strategies
UNIT 5 · PARTICIPATION
CHAPTER 34
Presidential, House, and Senate campaigns compete under different electoral rules and geographic constituencies. Presidential candidates work through state-based electoral votes. House candidates compete inside one district, while Senate candidates face an entire state. Those rules change where campaigns travel, advertise, organize volunteers, and decide that another dollar or another hour of candidate time is most useful.
THE PRESIDENCY IS A STATE-BY-STATE ELECTORAL CONTEST
A presidential candidate does not win by accumulating the most individual votes nationwide; a candidate wins by accumulating electoral votes state by state. The Electoral College currently has 538 electors, and a candidate needs 270 to win. Forty-eight states award all of their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins that state’s popular vote; Maine and Nebraska are exceptions, allocating some electoral votes by congressional district alongside their statewide electors. Winning the national popular vote does not constitutionally guarantee the presidency, since the election turns on the electoral vote count.
PRIMARIES SELECT THE NOMINEES
Before the general election, each party selects its nominee through primaries, caucuses, and a national convention. That nomination contest is a separate strategic problem from the general election: a candidate courting primary voters, who tend to be more ideologically engaged than the general electorate, faces different incentives than the same candidate courting general-election voters a few months later.
An open primary allows voters to choose a party primary without requiring them to be registered members of that party, subject to the state’s rules. A closed primary limits participation to voters registered with that party. Because the eligible electorate differs, the rules can change which voters candidates must persuade during nomination.
A caucus is a party meeting in which participants select candidates or conduct party business through a more participatory process than a conventional primary ballot. A national party convention formally nominates the presidential ticket and adopts the party platform. Modern conventions usually ratify a nomination largely determined by the preceding state contests, but they still perform organizational and messaging functions.
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE CHANGES CAMPAIGN STRATEGY
Because electoral votes are won state by state, campaigns concentrate resources on competitive states where the outcome is genuinely uncertain, rather than spreading effort evenly across the whole country. A state that reliably favors one party receives comparatively little direct campaign attention, regardless of its population, while a closely divided state can receive a large share of candidate visits and advertising spending.
WHY THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE REMAINS CONTESTED
The Electoral College shapes strategy because electoral votes are allocated by states and most states use winner-take-all rules. Supporters argue that the system preserves a state-based federal structure and requires candidates to assemble geographically distributed coalitions. Critics argue that it can produce a president who did not receive the most votes nationwide and can concentrate campaign attention on a small number of competitive states. On the exam, explain how the electoral rule operates and what political effects can follow from it.
HOUSE AND SENATE RACES USE DIFFERENT MAPS
House elections occur in single-member districts, redrawn periodically through reapportionment, which reallocates House seats among states based on population, and redistricting, which redraws the specific district lines within a state. Senate elections are statewide, and Senate district boundaries do not change with reapportionment, since a senator represents an entire state rather than a portion of one. Senate seats are also staggered across six-year terms, so only about a third of the Senate is up for election in any given cycle, unlike the House, where the entire chamber faces election every two years.
INCUMBENCY AND DISTRICT STRUCTURE CHANGE THE ODDS
Incumbency advantage applies to presidential and congressional elections, although its strength varies by office and political environment. Incumbents benefit from name recognition, experience, fundraising networks, media attention, and an existing record of constituent or executive activity. Redistricting can also change an incumbent’s odds directly, by shifting a district’s boundaries to include a more or less favorable set of voters even before a single vote is cast in the next election.
Congressional elections also differ by timing. House members face election every two years, so every presidential election and every midterm election includes the entire House. Midterms occur halfway through a president’s four-year term and do not include the presidential race. Senators serve staggered six-year terms, so roughly one-third of Senate seats are contested in a typical federal election cycle.
| Feature | Presidential election | House election | Senate election |
|---|---|---|---|
| Basic unit | State-by-state electoral votes | Single-member district | Entire state |
| Term length | Four years | Two years | Six years, staggered |
| Redrawn by | Not applicable | Reapportionment and redistricting | Not redrawn |
Table 34.1 How the three electoral maps differ.
MATCHING THE MAP TO THE STRATEGY
Three strategic choices appear below, each shaped by a different electoral map. Work out which map is driving each decision first.
Scenario 1. A presidential campaign schedules most of its advertising and candidate travel in a small number of closely divided states, largely skipping states that reliably favor one party.
Map: the Electoral College, which rewards concentrating resources in competitive states rather than spreading effort evenly nationwide.
Scenario 2. A state legislature redraws a House district’s boundaries after the latest census, shifting the district’s partisan balance before the next election.
Map: the House district map, reshaped through reapportionment and redistricting in a way that does not apply to Senate seats.
Scenario 3. A senator campaigns across an entire state’s media markets rather than focusing on one smaller region.
Map: the Senate’s statewide contest, distinct from a House candidate’s single-district race.
QUESTIONS TO ANSWER WITHOUT NOTES
1. How many electoral votes exist, and how many does a candidate need to win?
538 electoral votes exist; a candidate needs 270 to win.
2. How do Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes differently from most other states?
They allocate some electoral votes by congressional district alongside statewide electors, rather than awarding all electoral votes to the statewide popular-vote winner.
3. Does winning the national popular vote guarantee winning the presidency?
No. The presidency turns on the electoral vote count, not the national popular vote total.
4. What is the difference between reapportionment and redistricting?
Reapportionment reallocates House seats among states based on population. Redistricting redraws the specific district lines within a state.
5. Are Senate districts redrawn after reapportionment?
No. Senators represent entire states, which do not change; only House district lines within a state are redrawn.
6. How often does the entire House face election, compared to the Senate?
The entire House faces election every two years; only about a third of the Senate is up for election in any given cycle, due to staggered six-year terms.
7. Why do presidential campaigns concentrate resources in competitive states?
Because electoral votes are won state by state, and effort in a reliably one-party state has less strategic value than effort in a state where the outcome is genuinely uncertain.
8. What is the difference between an open primary and a closed primary?
An open primary allows voters to choose a party primary without requiring registered party membership, subject to state rules. A closed primary limits participation to voters registered with that party.
9. What is a caucus, and how does it differ from a primary ballot?
A party meeting in which participants select candidates or conduct party business through a more participatory process than a conventional primary ballot.
10. What does a national party convention do?
Formally nominates the presidential ticket and adopts the party platform, usually ratifying a nomination already largely determined by the preceding state contests.
11. What is a midterm election, and which races does it not include?
An election occurring halfway through a president’s four-year term. It does not include the presidential race.
12. What is one argument for and one argument against the Electoral College?
Supporters argue it preserves a state-based federal structure and requires geographically distributed coalitions. Critics argue it can produce a president who did not win the national popular vote and concentrates attention on a small number of competitive states.