ACT Math · Probability and counting

A bag contains 3 red marbles worth 2 points each if drawn, and 7 blue marbles worth 0 points. If one marble is drawn at random, what is…

A bag contains 3 red marbles worth 2 points each if drawn, and 7 blue marbles worth 0 points. If one marble is drawn at random, what is the expected point value?

Answer and explanation

Answer: A: 0.6

Expected value weights each outcome by its probability. A red marble is drawn with probability 310\frac{3}{10} and is worth 22 points, and a blue marble is drawn with probability 710\frac{7}{10} and is worth 00. So E=310(2)+710(0)=0.6E=\frac{3}{10}(2)+\frac{7}{10}(0)=0.6, choice A. Choice D (2.02.0) is the value of a red marble, ignoring how unlikely it is. Choice B (0.70.7) is the probability of drawing blue. Choice C (1.01.0) is the average of the two point values, 2+02\frac{2+0}{2}, which wrongly treats red and blue as equally likely. The expected value must be less than 22 because most marbles are worth nothing.

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