ACT Math · Probability and counting

A game show wheel has three outcomes: winning 100 with probability 0.1, winning 20 with probability 0.3, and winning $0 with probability…

A game show wheel has three outcomes: winning $100 with probability 0.1, winning $20 with probability 0.3, and winning $0 with probability 0.6. What is the expected value of a spin?

Answer and explanation

Answer: G: $16

Expected value multiplies each outcome by its probability and adds: 0.1(100)+0.3(20)+0.6(0)=10+6+0=160.1(100)+0.3(20)+0.6(0)=10+6+0=16 dollars, choice G. Choice F ($6) includes only the $20 outcome and misses the $100 prize. Choice H ($40) is the plain average of the three prizes, 100+20+03\frac{100+20+0}{3}, which ignores their different probabilities. Choice J ($120) simply adds the prizes. Because the large prize is unlikely and zero is the most likely outcome, the expected value must be much less than $100, and it should be a weighted average.

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