ACT Math · Statistics and data analysis
A study finds a strong positive correlation between monthly ice cream sales and the number of drowning incidents. What is the most…
A study finds a strong positive correlation between monthly ice cream sales and the number of drowning incidents. What is the most reasonable conclusion?
Answer and explanation
Answer: B: A third factor, such as hot weather, likely explains both trends.
A strong correlation shows that two variables move together, but it does not show that one causes the other. Ice cream sales and drownings both rise in hot weather, because more people eat ice cream and more people swim, so a third factor, such as hot weather, likely explains both, choice B. Choice A and choice C claim a causal link in one direction or the other, but there is no reasonable mechanism. Choice D claims that correlation proves causation, which is a common mistake. Only a designed experiment can establish cause and effect.
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